* Tax reduction on durables will be maintained till September, and staggered down until December. This shows in-equivocally that consumers should not postpone their purchases, that the end of tax reduction is for real. This means that the third quarter will be very good, and the fourth quarter extraordinary.
* Nominal interest rates expected to decline to 8,75%, 2% real after inflation and after tax. This has never happened in Brazil over the last fifty years, and should stimulate consumer sales as never before.
* Part of Brazil's problems is the press coverage and Doomsday predictions that have led 44% of Brazilians to fear losing their jobs. In the US and Europe the ratio is similar or higher, and a disaster for consumer durables, since they are immediately postponed.
Mind you that no single economists has ever come close to predicting a 44% unemployment rate, but some how that is the general impression.
Fortunately, this fear has fallen 8%, it is now "only" 39% in June. We expect this to fall in Brazil, to 31% in July, 25% in August, 21% in September, and to 15% in December. Which means 15% more consumers for durable goods, and 30% more sales, since many will be playing catch up.
* Overall credit increases from 38% of GDP to 43%, still way under international averages. No need to de-leverage in Brazil, only in US, Europe, etc.
* Industrial inventories back to normal.
* Consumer Confidence up another 4,1% in June.
* Pay and Cable TV increases 17% first quarter 2009.
* Car sales up 8,5%, industry expects best year in its history.
* Real estate up 4,5% in May.
* Brazilian Banks pass Central bank's stress test.
11. Another month of net employment. 130.000 jobs created.