Growth in 2 Q came out to be 7,6%, annualized, proof that there never was a crisis nor even recession in Brazil, as we were predicting right from the beginning. No U, L or W, but a straight V.
And this is just the beginning. The third and forth quarters are always better than the first and second Q, so one can expect a solid second semester for many reasons.
1. Summer in Brazil is 1 Q, people on holiday, relaxing, traveling abroad and definitely not buying cars.
2. Investments in the 2 Quarter 2009, were nil, due to the negative predictions of practically every trend consultant. Now companies are desperately buying capacity for 2010.
3. Air plane traffic has increased another 20% in August, 240% annualized, which in Brazil is a leading indicator. Businessmen traveling and planning new ventures.
4. 36% of Brazilians, especially in the South, still fear they may lose their jobs. They still are not buying on credit. This should plummet to 10% by December, fueling extra demand and growth.
5. Many durable goods have been postponed by a year, and December will be the time to catch up, meaning double the amount of sales.
6. 4Q may see double digit growth, say 12%, annualized, something unheard of in Brazil for some time.
7. Henrique Meirelles promises to stay till the end of his term at the Central Bank.
8. Moody's finally gives its Investment grade to Brazil. 3/3.
9. 2016 Olympics will be in Brazil.