Betting On Brazil

Brazilian Stock Market World Record

Bovespa gained 124% this year, ranking first place, with the Philippines in second with 117%.

Those who folllowed our advice and bet on Brazil, do not need to thank us, just deposit 2% of your gains to the charity of your choice in another website of ours, www.filantropia.org. Thank you.

5 Billion Dollars Invested in the Stock Market

Those who followed our advise, and Bet on Brazil in February, have had a huge following. 5 billion dollars has been the net inflow from foreigners into the Brazilian Stock Market.

Saldo de capital externo na Bolsa supera R$ 10 bi no ano - Yahoo! Notícias.

BUY OR SELL-Can Brazil's Stock Market Rally Further?

"Those who run the show in the markets look at their graphs and see no reason why this rally should fizzle," said Helena Biasotto, who helps manage about 5 billion reais in stocks and bonds for Banrisul in the Brazilian city of Porto Alegre. "The 'buy' mode is switched on."

BUY OR SELL-Can Brazil's stock market rally further? | Markets | Markets News | Reuters.

Consumer Confidence Rises Once Again

Now its 127. The  average is 100; above that is optimism. 200 is euphoria.

Cresce confiança do consumidor no futuro da economia - AE Investimento

Brazilian Stock Market Can Increase 600% in 10 Years

Ibovespa's PE is currently around 6, and if you eliminate utilities and dividend based companies, you can buy a nice basket of PE 5 Companies such as Petro and Vale. 

With real interest rates at 3% a year in Brazil, PE Ratios of 20 in 2019 is the most probable scenario. That is 4 times the current value. And what about the E?

Doubling in 10 years, thanks to leverage and low interest rates, means growth with no dilution, I estimate, of 8% a year.

4x2=8.

So to play it safe I go on the record with 600%. Compare that to US Treasuries, and you will end up with 40% max. 

Betting on Brazil has never been such a sure bet.

Why AIG Is Battling For Executive Bonus

"Greedy Bastards" is the conventional saying. The truth, however, is quite different. I talked to a friend that had just left a nice job to work for AIG. "Are you crazy ?"

No one changes a secure job to go to a failed company. He tells me that AIG is quite solvent, the bailout money actually is more than it needs, and management's big worry now is retaining talented management, specially the newly hired that are not part of the mess.

These newly hired were attracted by offering base salary, and a guaranteed bonus for the first years, otherwise they would have stayed out. You would have done the same.

But the good news, if my friend is to be believed, is that AIG is thinking ahead, not being greedy and taking the spoils.

Ibovespa Back on Track?

Bovespa 1963-2012

The Brazilian Stock Market follows a consistent exponential tend for over 45 years, with a R2 correlation of 89%, which is extremely high given past volatility.

See for yourself were the index is poised to be in a couple of years. No more needs to be said.